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2024-12-14 09:08:14

The volume pile is shrinking, the volume and price deviate, and the market index deviates. The rise at this stage is ship pulled, and now the market fully meets these characteristics.Of course, there are still many situations, which are enough to explain the current trend. It is a trend of attracting more people, and I will not list them one by one. My judgment has gone up and down these days, and I keep making mistakes. Maybe it's because I want this wave of market to work normally, so I will adjust it, and it will go up when it goes up, but I just push up the index and go up for the sake of going up. In addition, the trading volume can't be effectively enlarged. Without a new leading plate, I rely on a few big index stocks to control the market. This is ship pulled. Therefore, I am still bearish on tomorrow's A-share market.It is basically impossible to find out the sectors that have market appeal and can play a leading role. Without a new leading sector, the market will lose its leader. Without a leading sector, how to start the second wave of gains depends on general gains.


Second, the plate rotation is too fast, and no new leading plate can be found.If we combine the A50 index with the trend of Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong stocks have hit a new low, and the downward trend is more obvious. From these two indexes, there is no sign of starting a second upswing. If it were not for the support, A shares and these two sisters would have fallen sharply at the same time.Because A-shares often support the market, big index stocks have not gone up less. When we look at the increase of big index stocks and small and medium-sized stocks together, they are basically the same, both at a relatively high level. In this way, big index stocks are even less dominant. Banks have gone up for 10 years, and oil and coal have gone up for four years. These small and medium-sized stocks have only gone up for more than a month, but the increase is relatively large, so there is no basis for size conversion, that is,


First, this is mainly reflected in the current situation of A-shares themselves: it is inseparable from the positive, and the hype foundation of A-shares in the past three years is being weakened.In the past year or two, the theme of A-shares was foreign investment and RMB appreciation. This concept has been going on until now, including today. However, Tuesday's favorable policy proposed to implement monetary easing, which indicates that the RMB exchange rate is expected to depreciate or begin to depreciate, and the concept of A-shares has been speculated to the end. After all, after several years, few people believe it, and it can only be played by big players themselves. The participation of retail investors is not high, and the big index stocks are at historical highs.

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